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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest shock.

However this year's competition is profoundly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to spin magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Almost every gamble – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.

Still