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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."